The trade is official. LaMelo Ball is a Timberwolf. Go ahead, feel excited about it. Then feel the knot in your stomach.
Brian Windhorst, who gets paid to be enthusiastic about these things, called it a dream backcourt. “You throw a double-team at Ant Edwards with LaMelo Ball on the court,” he said, “you are playing with fire.” Sure. Fire is the right word. Wolves fans should be thinking hard about who gets burned.
Last year — the healthy year, Ball’s first healthy season after three straight injury-shortened years — he averaged 20.1 points, 7.1 assists, 4.8 rebounds on 36.8 percent from three. Good numbers. Real numbers. The Ringer called him the ultimate missing piece for Edwards, arguing that Ant is “the ultimate hammer, not a spellbook,” and that Ball finally gives him someone who can create off the bounce when defenses collapse. That’s a legitimate basketball argument. It just ignores the previous three years.
Before 2025-26, LaMelo played in 105 of 246 possible games. Ankles. Wrists. Related procedures. The three seasons before that healthy one went 36 games, 22 games, 47 games. One good year doesn’t erase that chart.
WELCOME TO MINNESOTA, MELO 🐺 pic.twitter.com/6CBzzI1a1p
— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) July 10, 2026
Then there’s the fit problem. In 2024-25, Ball’s usage rate was 35.9 percent — the highest in the NBA. Anthony Edwards ran at 31.4 percent that same year. Those two numbers have never coexisted on a contender without someone eventually screaming for the ball. ESPN graded the trade a D+ and yes, DunkingWithWolves called that grade foolish, and yes, CBS Sports handed out a B+ and called it high-risk, high-reward. All of those reactions are correct simultaneously. This trade is exactly that contradictory.
The defense question doesn’t get enough attention. Ball checked in at the 10th percentile for matchup difficulty — meaning opponents actively hunt him on screens, in switches, everywhere. His perimeter ISO defense sits at the 31st percentile. He does post a 65th percentile steal rate, but that’s what gambling for steals looks like on the stat sheet; it isn’t actually stopping anyone. The Wolves just handed significant minutes to a player that playoff opponents will immediately diagram plays to exploit. Edwards had his own defensive struggles in 2024-25 — putting both of them on the floor together is a calculation coaches will either manage carefully or badly.
The price. Naz Reid — Sixth Man of the Year, the first Timberwolf to ever win that award, the guy who posted the team’s best net rating at +6.8 per 100 possessions in 2024-25 — is gone. With him: an unprotected 2033 first-round pick, three first-round pick swaps (2028, 2029, 2030), and three second-round picks. The Raptors and Trail Blazers were bidding for Ball too. That’s how expensive the auction got. If Ball plays 50 games in 2026-27, that 2033 pick could be heading to Charlotte during what should be the prime of Edwards’ career.
The optimists have Luka and Kyrie as their template. Two ball-dominant guards who actually reached the Finals before Dallas moved on. Fair enough. But Kyrie had four years as a co-star before Dallas. Ball has zero games of NBA life where he wasn’t the primary option. That adjustment doesn’t happen automatically.
Ball is a dream. This is also a gamble that required the Wolves to give up one of the best players in their franchise’s recent memory plus the equivalent of a future team’s foundation. Windhorst was excited. Spotrac shows Ball is owed $40.7M in 2026-27, $43.6M in 2027-28, $46.4M in 2028-29. There is no off-ramp if this goes sideways.
Ant Edwards is the best player on this team. He’s going to the Finals — the only question is when and with whom. LaMelo Ball could absolutely be the answer. He could also be 45 games of brilliance, a trainer’s room, and a catastrophic pick heading to Charlotte in 2033.
The grief over Naz Reid is real. So is the ceiling. Both things live here now.
